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Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?

putin Vol $1,085,329 50 traders

March 310%
February 280%
April 300%
January 310%
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$1,085,329 Vol. putin

Outcomes

8
Chance
May 31 Resolved
0%
September 30
3%
December 31
6%
January 15 Resolved
0%
January 31 Resolved
0% ▼ 1
March 31 Resolved
0% ▲ 1
February 28 Resolved
0%
April 30 Resolved
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0xf1ba…c903 SELL No $28.95 1h ago
  • 0xc8a2…c9b6 SELL No $48.25 Jul 21
  • 0xa2db…a60d SELL No $48.33 Jul 21
  • 0x7c9e…db3d BUY Yes $5.43 Jul 21
  • 0x4a3b…3149 SELL Yes $0.12 Jul 15
  • 0x4a3b…3149 SELL Yes $0.13 Jul 15
  • 0x4a3b…3149 SELL Yes $0.15 Jul 15
  • 0x4a3b…3149 SELL Yes $0.45 Jul 15
  • 0xcb58…ccd0 SELL No $10.44 Jul 14
  • 0x7028…e0e9 SELL No $16.40 Jul 14
  • 0xf524…8178 SELL Yes $0.02 Jul 12
  • 0x54c6…e5c2 SELL Yes $0.19 Jul 7
  • 0x54c6…e5c2 SELL Yes $1.41 Jul 5
  • 0x54c6…e5c2 SELL Yes $0.48 Jul 5
  • 0x7028…e0e9 BUY No $16.15 Jul 2
  • 0xdf9b…296b SELL No $442.74 Jul 2
  • 0xe5d8…d3e5 SELL No $429.60 Jul 2
  • 0x7923…48e9 SELL No $412.71 Jul 2
  • 0x4a23…f956 SELL No $459.62 Jul 2
  • 0x22de…1e02 SELL Yes $55.80 Jul 2
  • 0x4247…69a3 SELL Yes $55.80 Jul 2
  • 0x491c…08ca SELL Yes $55.80 Jul 2
  • 0x3502…a8f5 SELL No $91.50 Jul 2
  • 0x5c0a…a2c3 SELL Yes $9.16 Jul 2
  • 0x3502…a8f5 SELL No $13.85 Jul 2
  • 0x4dd2…c0f3 SELL No $16.60 Jun 1
  • 0x3f2a…5272 SELL No $10.85 Jun 1
  • 0x4e39…8cbf SELL Yes $0.01 Jun 1
  • 0x5eec…f4e2 BUY No $350.76 May 31
  • 0x1ffb…3e3c SELL No $5.19 May 31
  • 0x8ee7…5bec SELL No $16.28 May 31
  • 0x58f0…62f1 SELL No $5.70 May 31
  • 0x2021…c366 SELL No $17.39 May 31
  • 0x7cff…5576 SELL Yes $0.50 May 31
  • 0x7cff…5576 BUY Yes $1.00 May 31
  • 0x8cfa…3756 BUY No $9.30 May 31
  • 0x3f2a…5272 BUY No $10.85 May 31
  • 0x5c56…b931 SELL No $21.28 May 31
  • 0x1ffb…3e3c BUY No $5.20 May 31
  • 0x58f0…62f1 BUY No $5.71 May 31

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Prymorske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Stepnohirsk" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K7mS2YU7bZoVVHga9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Comments

AuthenticDemigod May 23

So yeah, pretty safe even if the Russian summer offensive will be stronger than expected.

0x4Dc71E7868955f9Eb88A153660872BD09235f360-1768384545487 Jan 28

f

0x4Dc71E7868955f9Eb88A153660872BD09235f360-1768384545487 Jan 28

i think its can

IamBatman- Jan 17

[link removed] finally realizeed that this city won't fall anytime soon and started selling his Yes. Classic

leCommissaire Jan 13

Get Azrarn a diaper as a gift. Today he really pissed his pants.

Azrarn Jan 13

Well yeah, it’s scary

leCommissaire Jan 13

Calm down. Controlling the entire city is unrealistic - at least until spring.

PronayReincarnate Jan 12

You can bet against reality, and you may win short term, but long term truht always prevails

molodoyy Jan 12

ISW map is not about truth

PronayReincarnate Jan 13

Put your money where your mouth is and bet on January 31-st then

HopeDisLasts Jan 16

lol you are too dumb to even get what the said