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Chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
June 30, 20260%
December 31, 20250%
December 31, 20269%
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Outcomes
3December 31, 2025 Resolved
0%
December 31, 2026
9%
▲ 1
June 30, 2026 Resolved
0%
Recent trades
40- 0x8a98…2619 BUY Yes $2.70 55m ago
- 0x8a98…2619 BUY Yes $175.00 57m ago
- 0x1de9…831d BUY No $1922.00 2h ago
- 0x4542…2637 BUY No $1.00 4h ago
- 0x5f3f…397d BUY No $6.00 10h ago
- 0x38b8…6219 BUY Yes $1.00 19h ago
- 0xcdcf…2727 BUY Yes $1.01 21h ago
- 0x1de9…831d BUY No $1925.00 22h ago
- 0xa703…6a73 BUY No $100.00 Jul 22
- 0x19f5…b4cb BUY No $4.00 Jul 22
- 0x1de9…831d BUY No $1930.00 Jul 22
- 0x1d1a…37bf BUY No $7.50 Jul 22
- 0xf670…e778 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0xb3af…84fc BUY No $316.19 Jul 21
- 0xb3af…84fc BUY No $465.00 Jul 21
- 0xb3af…84fc BUY No $93.00 Jul 21
- 0xc5a2…9981 BUY No $121.00 Jul 21
- 0xba87…dcc2 BUY No $6.60 Jul 21
- 0x7188…b17b BUY Yes $8.00 Jul 21
- 0x1de9…831d BUY No $1924.00 Jul 21
- 0x8a98…2619 BUY Yes $599.95 Jul 21
- 0xab7e…1a5f BUY No $1.01 Jul 21
- 0x8a98…2619 BUY Yes $45.00 Jul 21
- 0xab7e…1a5f BUY No $1.01 Jul 21
- 0x0dde…94c3 BUY No $20.35 Jul 21
- 0x21d0…ce91 BUY No $341.17 Jun 30
- 0xebe6…20c4 SELL No $1.02 Jun 30
- 0x5848…4258 BUY Yes $2.00 Jun 30
- 0x83e6…2488 SELL No $1.09 Jun 30
- 0x9351…9e4d SELL No $1.51 Jun 30
- 0x7449…c05e SELL No $1.25 Jun 30
- 0x50a5…1af8 SELL No $1.16 Jun 30
- 0xf328…ef86 SELL No $52.04 Jun 30
- 0x3234…e40d SELL No $2.31 Jun 30
- 0xa6f5…715a SELL No $3.05 Jun 29
- 0x3d14…ee01 SELL No $99.90 Jun 29
- 0x4eb6…5e8a SELL No $5.00 Jun 29
- 0x227b…76f9 SELL No $0.13 Jun 29
- 0x9049…a3e7 SELL No $9.99 Jun 29
- 0x227b…76f9 SELL No $1.09 Jun 29
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Comments
Russian parliament passes bill allowing Putin to invade foreign countries The new measure arrives amid fears the Kremlin might be ready to test the West’s commitment to NATO. [link removed]
polyesc just cleaned up my whole workflow
Russia bogged in Ukraine, economy in shambles from sanctions, no capacity for NATO war.
+15 rub
how does it feel to be that stupid
lets see
I do not think that Putin will be stupid enought to touch nato territory
What will happen to him for seizing the Baltics? Will the European cuckolds express concern?)
lol are you dumb or something bro
So bet your money against me, smart guy.)
We are going to have serious problems if this market resolves to yes.
Is it going to be another major holiday?
They probably don't have the capability to invade for the time being; their supplies can't keep up.
Vanga predicted that Volodymyr would unite all the Slavic nations together...
loose
Throughout the day on Friday, Estonian border guards saw more active activity and movement of armed groups on the Russian side in the Saatse Boot area [link removed]
I dont think the money going to mean sl
Before February 22, 2022, 95% of people didnt believe that Russia would invade Ukraine
Come on they are struggling to take Dombas not to talk about NATO
Anyone sensible believed it before the invasion actually began
Most people were not sensible.
The Ukrainian army is far stronger than the European NATO. It has a million soldiers with modern warfare experience.
This is absolutely impossible. The "Zapad 2025" "exercises" involved 16,000 soldiers and inflatable aircraft. 98% of the combat-ready army is in Ukraine.
nothing ever happens
[link removed]
Estonia has accused Russia of violating its airspace, claiming three supersonic Russian fighter jets entered its airspace in an “unprecedented and brazen” incursion. The claim on Friday prompted immediate condemnation from NATO and European countries, who called it a “reckless” and “dangerous provocation”, but the Russian Ministry of Defence denied the allegation. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said the three MiG-31s entered Estonian airspace “over the Gulf of Finland” in the north for 12 minutes, adding that he had summoned the charge d’affaires at the Russian embassy over the violation.
Y el sobrevuelo en espacio aereo sobre Estonia por aviones Rusos? considero que puede esto pasar a mayores
You folks on crack who are voting 'Yes'
Absolutely
If they actually choose it, they'll hit the jackpot.
happening brother
Yes, I see already russian tanks with bears, vodka and seledka. And thousands of soldiers in ushanka attacking.
ffdfdf
Putin would probably take a fraction of Poland and then retreat just to test NATO's response
Poland would be let off leash
@lebolska
Will the blitzkrieg against Poland repeat itself?
I d say Baltic go first, likely Latvia or Estonia, lots of native Russians there and more sympathy towards Mother Russia
I am expecting Putin to hold a speech on the red square and like Saruman shouting "to waaar" at the end as he sends forward his orc armies to invade NATO. The media told me this will happen
Your worldview is very strange, dude.
what are you smoking boys?
they smoking that warmongering pack
russian orcs have not captured a single regional center of Ukraine since 2022, they are not yet completely suicidal to attack NATO
Their goal was publicly announced by Putin and then by his defence minister - it's the destruction of Ukr army that's the priority. Capturing territory just a consequence.
Since the war started Ukraine became the most militarized country in Europe with the largest standing army. Sounds like his plan is going the opposite way. If he really wanted to destroy their army Russians would just be sitting in defense instead of sending meat wave after meat wave just to capture small villages, the ones attacking always have far more losses than ones defending
basically it is like: WW3 in 2025?
Do you know what alliance means?
NATO ignored several 5th article worthy incidents, and will probably ignore invasion of baltic states too
there will not be any invasion of baltic states.
Then No bet is 5.5% bond that will be payed out in less than 4 months? Why didn't you bought any?
I don't even wake up for under 10% of gain
Your trade history tell another story
Check again. I rarely buy "safe" markets with low gains. I usually take small risky bets with high rewards. Just like you. I think we have a similar style of bet
Nah, i am in kinda degen ballpark, if it's less than 300% of theoretical payout, i rarely go there
Putin is going to invade the whole europe, keep buying!
If he could he would but he already got owned by Ukraine
Kyiv in 1h 22mins
he was planning to but he has no army left. Putin is basically like Hitler if Hitler was stuck in Poland for 4 years instead of taking it in 1 month
Be careful. You are betting the wrong question. it says "Will Russia invade a NATO country...." not "Will Russia go to war against NATO". There is a difference. A big one.
What happen if Russia invades Estonia, but the big five inside NATO do not respond to article 5? From where i stand Trump will never respect article 5, so France, Germany and Italy won't move a finger either. Only Canda and GB may go "boots on the ground" helping a NATO country invaded by Russia.