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Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Politics Vol $5,270,645 105 traders

June 30, 20260%
December 31, 20250%
December 31, 20269%
$5,270,645 Vol. Politics

Outcomes

3
Chance
December 31, 2025 Resolved
0%
December 31, 2026
9% ▲ 1
June 30, 2026 Resolved
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x8a98…2619 BUY Yes $2.70 55m ago
  • 0x8a98…2619 BUY Yes $175.00 57m ago
  • 0x1de9…831d BUY No $1922.00 2h ago
  • 0x4542…2637 BUY No $1.00 4h ago
  • 0x5f3f…397d BUY No $6.00 10h ago
  • 0x38b8…6219 BUY Yes $1.00 19h ago
  • 0xcdcf…2727 BUY Yes $1.01 21h ago
  • 0x1de9…831d BUY No $1925.00 22h ago
  • 0xa703…6a73 BUY No $100.00 Jul 22
  • 0x19f5…b4cb BUY No $4.00 Jul 22
  • 0x1de9…831d BUY No $1930.00 Jul 22
  • 0x1d1a…37bf BUY No $7.50 Jul 22
  • 0xf670…e778 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0xb3af…84fc BUY No $316.19 Jul 21
  • 0xb3af…84fc BUY No $465.00 Jul 21
  • 0xb3af…84fc BUY No $93.00 Jul 21
  • 0xc5a2…9981 BUY No $121.00 Jul 21
  • 0xba87…dcc2 BUY No $6.60 Jul 21
  • 0x7188…b17b BUY Yes $8.00 Jul 21
  • 0x1de9…831d BUY No $1924.00 Jul 21
  • 0x8a98…2619 BUY Yes $599.95 Jul 21
  • 0xab7e…1a5f BUY No $1.01 Jul 21
  • 0x8a98…2619 BUY Yes $45.00 Jul 21
  • 0xab7e…1a5f BUY No $1.01 Jul 21
  • 0x0dde…94c3 BUY No $20.35 Jul 21
  • 0x21d0…ce91 BUY No $341.17 Jun 30
  • 0xebe6…20c4 SELL No $1.02 Jun 30
  • 0x5848…4258 BUY Yes $2.00 Jun 30
  • 0x83e6…2488 SELL No $1.09 Jun 30
  • 0x9351…9e4d SELL No $1.51 Jun 30
  • 0x7449…c05e SELL No $1.25 Jun 30
  • 0x50a5…1af8 SELL No $1.16 Jun 30
  • 0xf328…ef86 SELL No $52.04 Jun 30
  • 0x3234…e40d SELL No $2.31 Jun 30
  • 0xa6f5…715a SELL No $3.05 Jun 29
  • 0x3d14…ee01 SELL No $99.90 Jun 29
  • 0x4eb6…5e8a SELL No $5.00 Jun 29
  • 0x227b…76f9 SELL No $0.13 Jun 29
  • 0x9049…a3e7 SELL No $9.99 Jun 29
  • 0x227b…76f9 SELL No $1.09 Jun 29

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Comments

0xCC4984B3d0fa33f0ACD40e73D43619283d39c7a9-1761451510307 May 13

Russian parliament passes bill allowing Putin to invade foreign countries The new measure arrives amid fears the Kremlin might be ready to test the West’s commitment to NATO. [link removed]

nexilium.-. Apr 17

polyesc just cleaned up my whole workflow

Valentime Mar 12

Russia bogged in Ukraine, economy in shambles from sanctions, no capacity for NATO war.

latvia Mar 12

+15 rub

aoudauihdsfiukj Jun 10

how does it feel to be that stupid

psychicpsychic Feb 10

lets see

Daro86 Feb 9

I do not think that Putin will be stupid enought to touch nato territory

latvia Feb 9

What will happen to him for seizing the Baltics? Will the European cuckolds express concern?)

VNINVESTOR Feb 10

lol are you dumb or something bro

latvia Feb 11

So bet your money against me, smart guy.)

tiburcio Jan 4

We are going to have serious problems if this market resolves to yes.

gthet6 Nov 12

Is it going to be another major holiday?

jndtrjnde Nov 11

They probably don't have the capability to invade for the time being; their supplies can't keep up.

ForSale Oct 27

Vanga predicted that Volodymyr would unite all the Slavic nations together...

julia0809 Oct 26

loose

Tikuse Oct 11

Throughout the day on Friday, Estonian border guards saw more active activity and movement of armed groups on the Russian side in the Saatse Boot area [link removed]

Blahblahblublu Oct 1

I dont think the money going to mean sl

Nibiru2 Sep 28

Before February 22, 2022, 95% of people didnt believe that Russia would invade Ukraine

MaguraV5 Sep 29

Come on they are struggling to take Dombas not to talk about NATO

studmuffin6969 Sep 30

Anyone sensible believed it before the invasion actually began

rob666 Oct 14

Most people were not sensible.

latvia Jan 20

The Ukrainian army is far stronger than the European NATO. It has a million soldiers with modern warfare experience.

Porx Sep 24

This is absolutely impossible. The "Zapad 2025" "exercises" involved 16,000 soldiers and inflatable aircraft. 98% of the combat-ready army is in Ukraine.

0xD5d131D2Fc81D0053Fcc2a08c5402F82146309F2-1758441430655 Sep 21

nothing ever happens

aparon Sep 20

[link removed]

0x1a19919A07bB8d021F6cd1CE4601Ad5fe2Bd6F9C-1758204783979 Sep 20

Estonia has accused Russia of violating its airspace, claiming three supersonic Russian fighter jets entered its airspace in an “unprecedented and brazen” incursion. The claim on Friday prompted immediate condemnation from NATO and European countries, who called it a “reckless” and “dangerous provocation”, but the Russian Ministry of Defence denied the allegation. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said the three MiG-31s entered Estonian airspace “over the Gulf of Finland” in the north for 12 minutes, adding that he had summoned the charge d’affaires at the Russian embassy over the violation.

JurisPhantom Sep 20

Y el sobrevuelo en espacio aereo sobre Estonia por aviones Rusos? considero que puede esto pasar a mayores

MarcusGHT Sep 18

You folks on crack who are voting 'Yes'

cataction Sep 20

Absolutely

xfghedhygb Nov 16

If they actually choose it, they'll hit the jackpot.

0xD8c387F7D25e6aBcdcD0Ee9F7d1862D37BdaD673-1730931292639 Sep 14

happening brother

Gluckyklucky Sep 14

Yes, I see already russian tanks with bears, vodka and seledka. And thousands of soldiers in ushanka attacking.

Binshi Sep 20

ffdfdf

88blitzcrank Sep 14

Putin would probably take a fraction of Poland and then retreat just to test NATO's response

0x6A797954601869AAa007fB146765CCDD4f311b98-1750805973423 Sep 16

Poland would be let off leash

0x1187ae3aE18e61e11844bFADDA7247301ca89790-1758657412423 Sep 23

@lebolska

cfgyhd Nov 16

Will the blitzkrieg against Poland repeat itself?

Volku Mar 11

I d say Baltic go first, likely Latvia or Estonia, lots of native Russians there and more sympathy towards Mother Russia

0xE6627912bA6af61a93bfe59CeB025eBEFCd0C372-1752566173502 Sep 13

I am expecting Putin to hold a speech on the red square and like Saruman shouting "to waaar" at the end as he sends forward his orc armies to invade NATO. The media told me this will happen

0x6120f232678c5a79f2af057b34100f2B5c3BB06a-1767832584697 Apr 25

Your worldview is very strange, dude.

classified Sep 11

what are you smoking boys?

magicguesser69 Sep 27

they smoking that warmongering pack

GenaTsidrusni Sep 11

russian orcs have not captured a single regional center of Ukraine since 2022, they are not yet completely suicidal to attack NATO

0xbb08314476Bb17c954Ef8BC9bE3627697feBd4Cc-1757948593204 Sep 15

Their goal was publicly announced by Putin and then by his defence minister - it's the destruction of Ukr army that's the priority. Capturing territory just a consequence.

parmezzana Sep 24

Since the war started Ukraine became the most militarized country in Europe with the largest standing army. Sounds like his plan is going the opposite way. If he really wanted to destroy their army Russians would just be sitting in defense instead of sending meat wave after meat wave just to capture small villages, the ones attacking always have far more losses than ones defending

PadreMaronno Sep 11

basically it is like: WW3 in 2025?

PadreMaronno Sep 13

Do you know what alliance means?

MagicEightBall Sep 13

NATO ignored several 5th article worthy incidents, and will probably ignore invasion of baltic states too

PadreMaronno Sep 13

there will not be any invasion of baltic states.

MagicEightBall Sep 13

Then No bet is 5.5% bond that will be payed out in less than 4 months? Why didn't you bought any?

PadreMaronno Sep 13

I don't even wake up for under 10% of gain

MagicEightBall Sep 13

Your trade history tell another story

PadreMaronno Sep 13

Check again. I rarely buy "safe" markets with low gains. I usually take small risky bets with high rewards. Just like you. I think we have a similar style of bet

MagicEightBall Sep 13

Nah, i am in kinda degen ballpark, if it's less than 300% of theoretical payout, i rarely go there

Kim-Jong-Un Sep 10

Putin is going to invade the whole europe, keep buying!

NoSteinNoGate Sep 10

If he could he would but he already got owned by Ukraine

Kim-Jong-Un Sep 10

Kyiv in 1h 22mins

ToastinRulez Sep 10

he was planning to but he has no army left. Putin is basically like Hitler if Hitler was stuck in Poland for 4 years instead of taking it in 1 month

RencoHada Sep 10

Be careful. You are betting the wrong question. it says "Will Russia invade a NATO country...." not "Will Russia go to war against NATO". There is a difference. A big one.

RencoHada Sep 10

What happen if Russia invades Estonia, but the big five inside NATO do not respond to article 5? From where i stand Trump will never respect article 5, so France, Germany and Italy won't move a finger either. Only Canda and GB may go "boots on the ground" helping a NATO country invaded by Russia.