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Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Oil Vol $1,300,065 50 traders

30+12%
40+100%
60+2%
40+7%
$1,300,065 Vol. Oil

Outcomes

7
Chance
60+
2%
80+
<1%
100+
<1%
40+ Resolved
100% ▲ 18
50+
3% ▼ 1
30+
12%
40+
7% ▼ 1

Recent trades

40
  • 0x27e9…eb23 SELL Yes $0.36 18m ago
  • 0x458c…c504 SELL No $49.71 55m ago
  • 0xbfcc…12a6 SELL No $104.63 56m ago
  • 0xfdf0…dee0 BUY Yes $10.00 1h ago
  • 0xfc1f…a246 SELL No $264.06 1h ago
  • 0x889c…171e BUY Yes $50.00 1h ago
  • 0xe958…66b7 BUY No $45.92 2h ago
  • 0x5533…51ba SELL Yes $2.02 3h ago
  • 0x1aae…a07c SELL Yes $0.37 4h ago
  • 0xbf94…37bf BUY No $2.00 4h ago
  • 0xee67…67a6 SELL Yes $6.67 6h ago
  • 0x0a7a…df1b SELL Yes $0.31 6h ago
  • 0x3acf…5d98 BUY No $5.01 6h ago
  • 0x4e8b…1ea1 BUY No $387.60 7h ago
  • 0x31d4…e162 SELL No $36.96 9h ago
  • 0x31d4…e162 BUY No $15.00 9h ago
  • 0x31d4…e162 BUY No $22.00 9h ago
  • 0xb51b…b4d9 SELL No $523.30 10h ago
  • 0xe72b…3c9c BUY No $49.05 10h ago
  • 0xe72b…3c9c BUY No $19.90 10h ago
  • 0xe958…66b7 BUY No $64.40 10h ago
  • 0x25db…28de SELL Yes $3.31 11h ago
  • 0x5b31…b2f0 BUY No $60.81 12h ago
  • 0xfe49…7a4c SELL No $489.00 12h ago
  • 0x6016…1ab5 SELL No $99.28 13h ago
  • 0xe958…66b7 BUY No $87.40 13h ago
  • 0xad52…11ac BUY Yes $56.19 14h ago
  • 0x0c2c…dce3 BUY No $10.00 14h ago
  • 0xd4ab…8253 BUY No $40.00 15h ago
  • 0x8a2e…d3ca SELL Yes $0.00 17h ago
  • 0x56e7…7c0b SELL Yes $135.51 17h ago
  • 0x56e7…7c0b SELL Yes $18.29 17h ago
  • 0xaed7…1598 SELL No $13.23 17h ago
  • 0xad52…11ac SELL Yes $7.00 18h ago
  • 0xb226…4163 BUY No $6.60 18h ago
  • 0xb226…4163 BUY No $31.16 18h ago
  • 0x31c6…2d79 SELL No $24.42 19h ago
  • 0x56e7…7c0b SELL Yes $50.81 20h ago
  • 0x25db…28de BUY Yes $121.39 21h ago
  • 0x2fd9…1c31 BUY No $4.85 21h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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