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Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

Iran Vol $950,404 50 traders

Yes4%
No96%
$950,404 Vol. Iran
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
4%

Recent trades

25
  • 0x13a4…e658 BUY Yes $52.00 39m ago
  • 0x758d…d822 SELL No $0.99 2h ago
  • 0x4aa5…0de9 SELL No $0.99 2h ago
  • 0x2522…9714 SELL No $0.99 2h ago
  • 0x4b9c…dc95 SELL No $0.99 2h ago
  • 0x022d…ab31 SELL No $0.99 2h ago
  • 0x265e…6e4f SELL Yes $82.60 2h ago
  • 0x133d…69ff BUY Yes $7.59 2h ago
  • 0x758d…d822 BUY No $1.00 2h ago
  • 0x4aa5…0de9 BUY No $1.00 2h ago
  • 0x2522…9714 BUY No $1.00 2h ago
  • 0x4b9c…dc95 BUY No $1.00 2h ago
  • 0x022d…ab31 BUY No $1.00 2h ago
  • 0xc8ab…6418 SELL No $4531.76 3h ago
  • 0xc80a…a799 BUY No $9.65 3h ago
  • 0x0314…2f6d SELL Yes $0.98 3h ago
  • 0x63dc…6839 BUY Yes $1.00 3h ago
  • 0xa7e1…b4f9 BUY No $9.65 4h ago
  • 0xbf8c…c51b BUY No $14.00 5h ago
  • 0xb1ea…3d00 BUY Yes $10.00 5h ago
  • 0x3304…906a SELL No $4.97 5h ago
  • 0x3304…906a BUY No $4.99 5h ago
  • 0x3e77…1749 SELL No $9.62 6h ago
  • 0x3e77…1749 BUY No $9.65 6h ago
  • 0x21a7…48c3 BUY Yes $1.00 6h ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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