Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Recent trades
25- 0xb424…3b71 BUY Yes $20.00 36m ago
- 0x8b56…9586 SELL No $19.80 46m ago
- 0x4c57…1cef SELL No $4.50 46m ago
- 0xca08…c267 SELL No $4.12 1h ago
- 0x0845…6b6f SELL No $1349.78 1h ago
- 0x500a…c8e4 BUY Yes $50.00 1h ago
- 0xe907…cff6 SELL Yes $1.21 1h ago
- 0x8b56…9586 BUY No $20.02 1h ago
- 0x0f18…5b28 SELL No $7.18 1h ago
- 0xab01…2558 BUY No $13377.98 1h ago
- 0xce3c…07cc SELL No $6.77 1h ago
- 0xe52a…aa55 SELL Yes $1.80 2h ago
- 0xe52a…aa55 BUY Yes $2.00 2h ago
- 0x0f18…5b28 SELL No $0.96 2h ago
- 0x3e6c…69fa SELL Yes $18.00 2h ago
- 0x9c26…74bc BUY No $1618.79 2h ago
- 0x8312…d15b BUY No $1.27 2h ago
- 0x79eb…ce85 BUY No $1.40 2h ago
- 0x3aee…a04a BUY No $1.79 2h ago
- 0x9a3e…3f8c BUY No $4.22 2h ago
- 0x45c5…4a26 BUY No $12.51 2h ago
- 0x1fb2…f888 BUY No $1.40 2h ago
- 0x4e1d…3fbf BUY No $1.07 2h ago
- 0x6e9b…e445 BUY No $2.75 2h ago
- 0x539b…c64f BUY No $90.47 2h ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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