Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
Outcomes
4Recent trades
40- 0xb58c…6900 SELL No $11.05 4h ago
- 0x56f0…10e2 SELL No $3.10 5h ago
- 0x3304…906a SELL No $4.98 8h ago
- 0x3304…906a BUY No $4.99 8h ago
- 0x7d99…43b2 SELL Yes $2.49 20h ago
- 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.98 21h ago
- 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.99 21h ago
- 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.98 22h ago
- 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.99 22h ago
- 0xe29f…e326 SELL No $4.98 Jul 22
- 0xe29f…e326 BUY No $4.99 Jul 22
- 0x05a9…7175 SELL Yes $0.38 Jul 22
- 0xe29f…e326 SELL No $4.98 Jul 22
- 0xe29f…e326 BUY No $4.99 Jul 22
- 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.98 Jul 22
- 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.99 Jul 22
- 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.98 Jul 22
- 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.99 Jul 22
- 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.98 Jul 22
- 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.99 Jul 22
- 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.98 Jul 21
- 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.99 Jul 21
- 0xe29f…e326 SELL No $4.98 Jul 21
- 0xe29f…e326 BUY No $4.99 Jul 21
- 0x3594…2599 SELL No $1.94 Jul 21
- 0x5a69…81a8 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 18
- 0x54b2…c0fd SELL Yes $1.71 Jul 16
- 0x22e0…3adb BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 16
- 0xbb2e…5bbf BUY No $161.00 Jul 16
- 0xafcf…9964 BUY Yes $3.00 Jul 12
- 0xbad5…2a9d SELL Yes $0.43 Jul 12
- 0x54b2…c0fd BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 11
- 0x4e4b…88ce SELL Yes $1.38 Jul 10
- 0xec4e…d9db BUY No $99.30 Jul 9
- 0xec4e…d9db BUY No $50.58 Jul 9
- 0x3d3c…630b BUY Yes $0.37 Jul 8
- 0xd92d…e838 BUY Yes $5.00 Jul 8
- 0xd372…b106 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 8
- 0x933c…a8c6 BUY No $19.78 Jul 8
- 0xf2cf…464b SELL No $9.57 Jul 8
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Comments
polymarket perps, last few spots: 01kivwd2
gooo out
tom midnight
they never officially admit it but NATO gonna split
27 april
how
lol
WSJ - Trump Says NATO ‘Won’t Be There’ for U.S. in the Future
source? link?
If he writes a letter of denunctiaion is enough
why is it quiet here
0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1
This guy @maskache2 is printing $1k per day with a weather trading bot and we are still gambling
not so fast april
#Check my track record and the core evidence I posted in the Epstein market (Epstein client list released by). This is a 7x upside opportunity.
are u epstien
After settling Iran, NATO, see you again
What’s funny about the rules is the notice of denunciation, per Article 13, must be sent to the US. So the underlying should be more like, “the US sends notice to the US that it’s leaving NATO.”
Brooo
free money
Doesnt matter what Trump said. To initiate withdrawal from NATO he need 2/3 of congress. What a chance?-0.
He can step out of the integrated command . Is there a market for that?
havent seen
Lol the rules state that to win YES, its only enough for trump to say they leave NATO
Read the rules carefully before you lost money. Actions,not words. According to Trump words he is already imperor of eath and galactic who started golden century for humankind,stopt all wars and solved all problems. Action mean that 2/3 of congress should vote for NATO exit and it will be a start of exit procedure which will take a year.
Even if he posts that US will withdraw, thats enough for the market resolving YES ;)
lol
Nope. Only if a formal process is initiated: "formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO". A tweet from Trump, one of many extreme statements with zero follow through, would not count.
Ok bro keep coping
Just trying to help you not loose your hard earned cash ... think of me in 20 days
Lol 100 dollars
the market moves thru emotion, dont be sad be happy
People need to understand that those who are voting yes april 30 are not thinking that is possible. Only that will be a major talk point in the news in a couple of hours and the odds will increase. Cashout doesnt need to be 100 or nothing
SSSSSSsssshhhhhhhhhhh FFS!
[link removed]
I agree that leaving NATO will happen soon.
LoL keep on dreaming
ok)
WHITE HOUSE: NATO WITHDRAWAL WILL BE DISCUSSED BY TRUMP WITH RUTTE ( YES )
information?
from cantina app
Whether a ceasefire or a win for the United States, the NATO is in big trouble thanks to Trumps feelings. He is hurt not only by NATO, but also by the collective west (except Israel) who hasn´t aided him in the war. Interesting times after the war... Maybe even during?
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
Seems like a good case for him signing an excutive order to take the US out of NATO
I understood that it’s enough to have a simple but official statement from Trump about leaving NATO, rather than the actual withdrawal itself, which could indeed take a long time. Please read the terms of the bet.
Yes
Exactly
That's not correct, unless that statement is a formal request towards NATO to initiate the process of leaving it: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO". I doubt a social media post could be seen as a formal initiation of withdrawal under those resolution terms, especially if there is no formal follow through and it's the usual empty words. I suppose it will depend on the form of the official statement and how exactly it is worded.
This would require Congress, this won’t happen
No
It seems the tables are turning.
United States will get rough time in Iran, Trump has asked for assistance from NATO which isn´t coming. Trump who already has anti-NATO rhetoric, will threaten even further that he is going to leave NATO if no help is coming for United States in Iran. Europe which is trying to stand on it´s own now that Trump has been so anti-EU and anti-allies, will NOT help United States. This will create rift between them. Trump has the upper hand (both EU and US loses) will somehow punish NATO for not aiding him.
For 9.8c, it is worth the risk. We will see in the coming days. But NATOs "betrayal" won´t be forgotten by Trump.
It doesn't hurt to try.
Yeap 😎
It won't happen. You dumb.
Saying it won't happen by the end of the year is questionable considering the current tension already.
-4k PNL mentality
You need to stop gambling dude holy shit.
This will absolutely happen. Please buy more Yes.