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Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

NATO Vol $6,259,530 125 traders

April 300%
December 313%
June 300%
August 311%
$6,259,530 Vol. NATO

Outcomes

4
Chance
June 30 Resolved
0%
August 31
1%
December 31
3%
April 30 Resolved
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0xb58c…6900 SELL No $11.05 4h ago
  • 0x56f0…10e2 SELL No $3.10 5h ago
  • 0x3304…906a SELL No $4.98 8h ago
  • 0x3304…906a BUY No $4.99 8h ago
  • 0x7d99…43b2 SELL Yes $2.49 20h ago
  • 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.98 21h ago
  • 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.99 21h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.98 22h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.99 22h ago
  • 0xe29f…e326 SELL No $4.98 Jul 22
  • 0xe29f…e326 BUY No $4.99 Jul 22
  • 0x05a9…7175 SELL Yes $0.38 Jul 22
  • 0xe29f…e326 SELL No $4.98 Jul 22
  • 0xe29f…e326 BUY No $4.99 Jul 22
  • 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.98 Jul 22
  • 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.99 Jul 22
  • 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.98 Jul 22
  • 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.99 Jul 22
  • 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.98 Jul 22
  • 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.99 Jul 22
  • 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.98 Jul 21
  • 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.99 Jul 21
  • 0xe29f…e326 SELL No $4.98 Jul 21
  • 0xe29f…e326 BUY No $4.99 Jul 21
  • 0x3594…2599 SELL No $1.94 Jul 21
  • 0x5a69…81a8 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 18
  • 0x54b2…c0fd SELL Yes $1.71 Jul 16
  • 0x22e0…3adb BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 16
  • 0xbb2e…5bbf BUY No $161.00 Jul 16
  • 0xafcf…9964 BUY Yes $3.00 Jul 12
  • 0xbad5…2a9d SELL Yes $0.43 Jul 12
  • 0x54b2…c0fd BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 11
  • 0x4e4b…88ce SELL Yes $1.38 Jul 10
  • 0xec4e…d9db BUY No $99.30 Jul 9
  • 0xec4e…d9db BUY No $50.58 Jul 9
  • 0x3d3c…630b BUY Yes $0.37 Jul 8
  • 0xd92d…e838 BUY Yes $5.00 Jul 8
  • 0xd372…b106 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 8
  • 0x933c…a8c6 BUY No $19.78 Jul 8
  • 0xf2cf…464b SELL No $9.57 Jul 8

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Comments

0xFE5dEB4BAEBf247469599446a4d485AB71c65941-1773446299588 Jul 13

polymarket perps, last few spots: 01kivwd2

Lojom May 25

gooo out

Xxsocute556 Apr 28

tom midnight

Volku Apr 18

they never officially admit it but NATO gonna split

0xB2A4b8516e0E1Ba364F9F2316fD430a89A66C4A6-1775081995380 Apr 15

27 april

Xxsocute556 Apr 15

how

BigDutchy Apr 27

lol

0xE358Db7f001f95bA1b79a9681F9c7341A2dE16Ad-1759394261955 Apr 15

WSJ - Trump Says NATO ‘Won’t Be There’ for U.S. in the Future

Xxsocute556 Apr 15

source? link?

saaipofta Apr 14

If he writes a letter of denunctiaion is enough

Xxsocute556 Apr 14

why is it quiet here

0xAFd0d1594cdBcaFF9c0DdDd6D32a054C25e12A69-1773556706525 Apr 13

0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1

InfoDesk Apr 12

This guy @maskache2 is printing $1k per day with a weather trading bot and we are still gambling

FishMan2 Apr 11

not so fast april

Rigorous Apr 11

#Check my track record and the core evidence I posted in the Epstein market (Epstein client list released by). This is a 7x upside opportunity.

Xxsocute556 Apr 11

are u epstien

0x20304927A28318fE923785700565718cF1beAD81-1768886376054 Apr 10

After settling Iran, NATO, see you again

bernardbulletin Apr 10

What’s funny about the rules is the notice of denunciation, per Article 13, must be sent to the US. So the underlying should be more like, “the US sends notice to the US that it’s leaving NATO.”

0x4fe9D21BAEcB35cE0918c926df59746575482a8F-1774269801923 Apr 10

Brooo

EverythingAlwaysHappens Apr 10

free money

prognozu Apr 10

Doesnt matter what Trump said. To initiate withdrawal from NATO he need 2/3 of congress. What a chance?-0.

Fuentes31 Apr 10

He can step out of the integrated command . Is there a market for that?

prognozu Apr 10

havent seen

Nonamenana Apr 10

Lol the rules state that to win YES, its only enough for trump to say they leave NATO

prognozu Apr 10

Read the rules carefully before you lost money. Actions,not words. According to Trump words he is already imperor of eath and galactic who started golden century for humankind,stopt all wars and solved all problems. Action mean that 2/3 of congress should vote for NATO exit and it will be a start of exit procedure which will take a year.

Nonamenana Apr 9

Even if he posts that US will withdraw, thats enough for the market resolving YES ;)

Laurenman Apr 9

lol

kevtp Apr 9

Nope. Only if a formal process is initiated: "formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO". A tweet from Trump, one of many extreme statements with zero follow through, would not count.

Nonamenana Apr 10

Ok bro keep coping

kevtp Apr 10

Just trying to help you not loose your hard earned cash ... think of me in 20 days

Nonamenana Apr 11

Lol 100 dollars

Xxsocute556 Apr 9

the market moves thru emotion, dont be sad be happy

Aleqw Apr 8

People need to understand that those who are voting yes april 30 are not thinking that is possible. Only that will be a major talk point in the news in a couple of hours and the odds will increase. Cashout doesnt need to be 100 or nothing

13thDukeofWybourne Apr 9

SSSSSSsssshhhhhhhhhhh FFS!

bonk3rs Apr 8

[link removed]

velor1 Apr 8

I agree that leaving NATO will happen soon.

0x591155E1ddff26779eD5f7F1C6DC411b796dA48a-1768847119181 Apr 8

LoL keep on dreaming

velor1 Apr 9

ok)

velor1 Apr 8

WHITE HOUSE: NATO WITHDRAWAL WILL BE DISCUSSED BY TRUMP WITH RUTTE ( YES )

wizzchan Apr 9

information?

Xxsocute556 Apr 9

from cantina app

psikikiii Apr 8

Whether a ceasefire or a win for the United States, the NATO is in big trouble thanks to Trumps feelings. He is hurt not only by NATO, but also by the collective west (except Israel) who hasn´t aided him in the war. Interesting times after the war... Maybe even during?

Nonamenana Apr 7

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

latterationary Apr 8

Seems like a good case for him signing an excutive order to take the US out of NATO

NadoDeneg Apr 6

I understood that it’s enough to have a simple but official statement from Trump about leaving NATO, rather than the actual withdrawal itself, which could indeed take a long time. Please read the terms of the bet.

Nonamenana Apr 7

Yes

Nonamenana Apr 7

Exactly

kevtp Apr 9

That's not correct, unless that statement is a formal request towards NATO to initiate the process of leaving it: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO". I doubt a social media post could be seen as a formal initiation of withdrawal under those resolution terms, especially if there is no formal follow through and it's the usual empty words. I suppose it will depend on the form of the official statement and how exactly it is worded.

Malachoza Apr 6

This would require Congress, this won’t happen

Nonamenana Apr 7

No

0x04d57F92Ae334dC1F1043505Db084E6583cd1085-1774463525321 Apr 6

It seems the tables are turning.

psikikiii Apr 6

United States will get rough time in Iran, Trump has asked for assistance from NATO which isn´t coming. Trump who already has anti-NATO rhetoric, will threaten even further that he is going to leave NATO if no help is coming for United States in Iran. Europe which is trying to stand on it´s own now that Trump has been so anti-EU and anti-allies, will NOT help United States. This will create rift between them. Trump has the upper hand (both EU and US loses) will somehow punish NATO for not aiding him.

psikikiii Apr 6

For 9.8c, it is worth the risk. We will see in the coming days. But NATOs "betrayal" won´t be forgotten by Trump.

0x04d57F92Ae334dC1F1043505Db084E6583cd1085-1774463525321 Apr 6

It doesn't hurt to try.

Nonamenana Apr 6

Yeap 😎

HyperWaldo Apr 3

It won't happen. You dumb.

lefort3surgery Apr 3

Saying it won't happen by the end of the year is questionable considering the current tension already.

POWERSLAP-EXPERT Apr 4

-4k PNL mentality

ThatOneEmoGuy Apr 5

You need to stop gambling dude holy shit.

McMercy Apr 2

This will absolutely happen. Please buy more Yes.